The financial markets have been on a wild ride for the last few weeks. This has created a lot of uncertainty and fear in the market. In my opinion we have been in recession since the financial markets melted down in 2008. And if you look at all the uncertainty in the world economy I see very little chance there isn’t more pain ahead.
I have always been against government intervention or stimulus to try to avoid recession. Markets can correct themselves quite efficiently without government interference. The latest government intervention has done nothing but spread the problem out and mortgage our future trying to do it.
So if the market gets worse, how will it affect us in Dallas?
So far in 2011, Texas has created almost 50 percent of the country’s job growth. There are more large users looking for space in Dallas than any market in the country. We track large deals in the Dallas market and, as of today, our list has more than 30 deals of 100,000 square feet or larger looking for office space in North Texas.
Not all of this is new absorption—some tenants are looking at relocating within Dallas—but significant portions are companies relocating from other markets.
I think the next five to seven years are going to be choppy; there will be no rocket ship recovery. But compared to anywhere else in the country, Dallas is going to continue to attract jobs and be a top choice for corporations looking to relocate.
As of today, office buildings remain out of favor for most investors.
North Texas will get more new office employment in the next few years based on the job growth numbers, but I also feel people are failing to recognize the entrepreneurial spirit of the American worker. Gifted people that are out of work will be starting new companies creating new job opportunities and leasing office space.
The next few years are going to require discipline, as well as good business instincts, but will provide incredible opportunities for people that stay in the game. I do not see much rent growth, but do see continued absorption.
Fear in a market is good because it creates uncertainties, which in turn provide opportunities for the investor that has a disciplined plan to take advantage of the inefficiency the market uncertainly provides. So let’s not worry if we are in recession or if we are going back into a recession. Let’s be thankful that we are in one of the best economies in America.
With the feds promising to keep interest rates low for the next 24 months, we can eliminate interest rate risk as a threat. We will all look back and wish we locked in these interest rates when recovery and inflation start.
Bottom line: This is a great time to invest in real estate in Dallas.
William R. “Bill” Cawley is chairman and CEO of Cawley Partners. Contact him at firstname.lastname@example.org.